Hypothetical Near Shore Oil Movement During a Hurricane
The animations linked here utilized winds, water surface elevations and water velocities for hurricanes Katrina (2005), Rita (2005), Gustav (2008), and Ike (2008) all of which strongly impacted the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Preliminary results from Hurricane Alex (2010) are also included, although this storm had minimal impact in this region.
In general hurricanes are expected to:
1.) mix oil in the water column thereby helping it disperse
2.) move near shore oil in a counter clockwise direction around the Gulf of Mexico
3.) push oil towards/on shore to the right of the storm track (associated with the surge) and pull oil away from the shore to the left of the storm track
NOTICE/DISCLAIMER
The animation depicts wind velocity, water levels, inundation and passive particle movement obtained from a simulation of different past hurricanes computed using the ADCIRC coastal circulation model coupled to the unstructured SWAN wave model.
The initial particle distributions vary from simulation to simulation. Some points are hypothetical; others reflect the position of the oil on the surface and vary in date from 06/20/2010 to 06/23/2010 to 06/27/2010. Positions were derived from the NOAA/NESDIS Experimental Marine Pollution Surveillance Daily Composite Product (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/MPS/deepwater.html).
Particles in the animation move with the depth-averaged water velocity and most accurately represent water movement in shallow estuarine, near shore and continental shelf waters that are strongly mixed during the storm. Particle motion beyond the continental shelf is not reliable.
During the simulation, particles do not disburse, stick or degrade in any way. They may not accurately represent the movement of oil.
These results should not be used to forecast the movement of material at the sea surface or in the water column during any future event.