Charlotte,  N.C. – From 1976 to 2006, land development in the North Carolina mountains increased 568 percent, from 34,348 acres to 229,422 acres, and is expected to increase another 63 percent by 2030 (an additional 145,374 acres), according to a study just released by researchers at the Renaissance Computing Institute (RENCI) at UNC Charlotte.

Population, meanwhile, increased only 42 percent between 1976 and 2006 and is projected to increase another 25 percent by 2030.  The result?  An increase in the average number of developed acres per person, or the “development footprint,” from 0.06 acres per person in 1976 to 0.30 acres in 2006, and a projected 0.39 acres per person by 2030.

How has rapid urban growth and land development changed western North Carolina’s natural landscape since 1976?  What challenges will the region face over the next 20 years in accommodating growth and protecting its abundant natural resources and great biodiversity?  Researchers at UNC Charlotte’s Center for Applied Geographic Information Science (CAGIS), a research partner with RENCI at UNC Charlotte, are collaborating with RENCI at UNC Asheville to address these and other urbanization issues.  The study was made possible through funding from the City of Asheville, the U.S. Forest Service and RENCI’s home office in Chapel Hill.

Using historical satellite imagery and population data and projections, the researchers have developed an Urban Growth Model that generates statistical and visual representations of likely trends in developed land area.  Satellite image analysis reveals how the landscape has changed from 1976 through 2006.  The Urban Growth Model combines the satellite image-based maps of development with population trends and offers forecasts of future development in the region through 2030.  The 19-county western North Carolina study builds upon similar studies by RENCI at UNC Charlotte, including the 2009 four-county analysis of Asheville and surrounding area and the 2007 original study of development in the Southern Piedmont / Greater Charlotte Metropolitan region.

By examining historical and forecast patterns of urbanization, RENCI researchers hope to assist policy makers, planners, and land conservationists in developing tools to understand and plan for rapid urban growth.  James Fox, the director of RENCI at UNC Asheville and the school’s National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center (NEMAC), said local stakeholders already are showing an interest in the study’s results.  “This versatile study from RENCI at UNC Charlotte has allowed us to gain maximum benefit from the limited resources available in today’s economic climate.  Being able to use this study at a variety of scales has proved invaluable.”

Fox added that UNC Asheville has used the study’s results in conjunction with the City of Asheville, Buncombe County, the local Land of Sky Council of Governments, and the U.S. Forest Service.

Analysis of historical satellite imagery indicates that between 1976 and 2006, development in the 19-county region occurred at an average rate of 17 acres per day, outpacing population growth nearly 14-to-1.  The Urban Growth Model forecasts that by 2030, the average rate of development in the region will be 16.3 acres per day, and development will continue to outpace population growth 2.5-to-1.

The results also show great variation in forecast gains in development among the counties in the region.  Alleghany, Ashe, and Madison counties are expected to experience the highest rates of forecast development, with Madison County experiencing the greatest percent increase – 109 percent – in developed acres, Alleghany County experiencing a 102 percent increase, and Ashe County a 103 percent increase.  Buncombe and Henderson Counties, the two most populated counties in the region, are expected to contribute roughly 17 percent and 13 percent, respectively, of total forecast gains for the region.

Looking forward regionally, the model predicts that by 2030, when the population is expected to approach 1 million, an additional 145,374 acres of land will be developed, the equivalent of an area roughly the size of Alleghany County (147,333 acres), or nearly six times the acres within Asheville’s city limits.

The full research report is available at http://ui.uncc.edu/content/nearly-570-increase-development-western-nc-mountains-1976.

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For more information about the model, or to schedule an interview with the study’s authors, contact Vicki Bott at (704) 678-2762 or vabott@uncc.edu.  For more information about plans for incorporating the study’s results into ongoing work in the region, contact Jim Fox at (825) 301-2075 or jfox@unca.edu.

Asheville, N.C. – Ever wanted to predict the future? Researchers at UNC Asheville and UNC Charlotte, as part of an ongoing Renaissance Computing Institute (RENCI) project, are learning how to do just that. Using historical satellite imagery, development trends, population data and population projections, they’ve been able to design an Urban Growth Model that can generate a visual representation of what our landscape may look like in the near future.

Building upon a similar study of the Charlotte region, released in 2007, researchers are in the process of analyzing land conversion patterns for all of western North Carolina. The initial results of their collaborative research highlight the effect of development on four western North Carolina counties: Madison, Buncombe, Henderson and Transylvania. Those results indicate that between 1976 and 2006, development in the four-county region increased nearly 500 percent, or at an average rate of six acres of green space per day – outpacing population growth nearly 10-to-one.

Researchers have identified several predictors of development patterns, such as an area’s proximity to a road or interstate interchange, an urban area or a major employment center. Topographical slope and “development pressure,” or proximity to already developed areas, are also key indicators of where urbanization and future development are likely to occur.

The Urban Growth Model indicates an additional 47,489 acres of forests and cultivated farms will be developed in the four-county region by 2030, which is the equivalent of losing almost 75 square miles worth of greens space – or more than six properties the size of the Biltmore Estate. That’s significant for an area that draws visitors from around the globe for its natural and scenic attractions.

The statistical forecast, which only extends to 2030 because that’s as far into the future as the state has projected population growth, is also important for policy makers, planners and conservationists. Understanding when development is likely to occur will help them know where to focus their attention.

James Fox, the director of RENCI at UNC Asheville and the university’s National Environment Modeling and Analysis Center (NEMAC), has already witnessed local lawmakers’ interest in the modeling data. “It’s going to be used by several different groups of decision makers,” he said, adding the study is an important tool that will make it easier for local governments to collaborate with each other when making policy and planning decisions.

“This is another important tool we can incorporate into our work,” said Richard Broadwell, a Land Protection Specialist for the Conservation Trust of North Carolina, which is working to preserve the scenic viewsheds along the Blue Ridge Parkway. His organization plans to use the data to help them determine which lands to protect and “how to spend our limited funds.”

Most of the predicted development is expected to occur in Buncombe and Henderson Counties, with Henderson County experiencing the greatest increase – 11.6 percent – relative to county area. By 2030, it’s expected 21.3 percent of Henderson County will be developed, not counting water or protected areas.

“For every acre of land that is converted from a natural state through development, there is a really big impact on the mountains’ plants and animals,” said Carl Silverstein, Executive Director for the Southern Appalachian Highlands Conservancy.

Silverstein is also concerned about development pressure on local farmers, decreased interest from tourists and the impact urban sprawl could have on the headwaters of rivers, which provide drinking water for millions of North Carolina citizens.

Additional findings demonstrate that humans require more impervious land per person than they once did. In 1976, land development equated to 0.06 acres per person in the four-county area. By 2030, researchers forecast per-capita land requirements will jump to a quarter-acre, or approximately 9,500 square feet.

Madison County’s “human footprint” is projected to increase more than the other three counties, by 0.18 acres per person (or 67 percent). In comparison, per-capita land use in Buncombe, Henderson and Transylvania Counties is only forecast to increase by 28 percent, 13 percent and 18 percent, respectively, in the same period.

The study on the four-county expansion of the urban growth model was conducted by researchers at UNC Charlotte’s Center for Applied Geographic Information Science (CAGIS), which is one of the partners in the RENCI at UNC Charlotte team. RENCI’s UNC Asheville engagement center is the lead regional partner for the western North Carolina expansion, with funding from the Z. Smith Reynolds Foundation, the City of Asheville, the U.S. Forest Service and RENCI’s home office in Chapel Hill. The study’s findings for the remaining western North Carolina counties are expected to be released in the spring of 2010.

Created in 2004, RENCI includes a statewide network of academic institutions working to solve complex problems affecting quality of life and economic competitiveness in North Carolina by tapping into university expertise and through the use of advanced technologies.

Additional research findings, including animated maps of land conversion rates for the four-county region, are available at http://renci.uncc.edu/WesternExpansion/.

About RENCI
RENCI operates facilities at UNC Asheville, UNC Charlotte, East Carolina University, UNC Chapel Hill, Duke University and NC State University as well as its flagship site off campus in Chapel Hill.

RENCI at UNC Charlotte involves faculty and staff from three UNC Charlotte research centers: the Urban Institute, the Center for Applied Geographic Information Science and the Charlotte Visualization Center.

RENCI at UNC Asheville focuses on disaster research, mitigation, and preparedness, taking advantage of western North Carolina’s expertise in weather and climate modeling, visualization, and public outreach.

About UNC Asheville
As the only designated liberal arts institution in the 16-campus University of North Carolina system, UNC Asheville serves students who are prepared for academic challenges by offering an intellectually rigorous education that builds critical thinking and workforce skills. UNC Asheville’s 3,400 undergraduate students select from 30 majors. The University gets high marks for educational innovation from U.S. News & World Report and is ranked among the best liberal arts colleges nationally.

About UNC Charlotte
A public research university, UNC Charlotte is the fourth largest campus among the 17 institutions of The University of North Carolina system. It is the largest institution of higher education in the Charlotte region. The university offers 18 doctoral programs, 62 master’s degree programs and 90 programs leading to bachelor’s degrees. Fall 2009 enrollment will surpass 24,000 students, including 5,000 graduate students.

For more information or to schedule an interview, contact John Chesser at (704) 678-2762 or jchesser@uncc.edu.

CONTACTS:
John Chesser, Associate Director for Research Services
UNC Charlotte Urban Institute
jchesser@uncc.edu
(704) 687-2762

James Fox, RENCI and NEMAC Director
UNC Asheville
jfox@unca.edu
(825) 301-2075

ASHEVILLE, NC–RENCI at UNC Asheville and Asheville-Buncombe Technical Community College (A-B Tech) announce the third annual celebration of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Day in Western North Carolina. The community drop-in event will be held from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. Thursday, Nov. 12, at the RENCI at UNC Asheville Community Engagement Site, located in the Grove Arcade in downtown Asheville.  The event is free and open to the public.

GIS Day provides an opportunity to see how geographic information systems work and how they are being used in local initiatives. Visitors will see a 16-foot visualization wall, an immersive GeoDome and 3-D visualizations in action as they learn about GIS projects such as map Asheville’s Priority Places, the newly released Urban Growth Model for the Asheville region, a multi-hazard risk analysis tool, GIS-based analysis of threats to eastern forests, flooding impacts and mitigation, and geospatial climate information viewers.

GIS professionals from local and regional organizations, including the City of Asheville, Buncombe County, the Land of Sky Regional Council of Governments, the Metropolitan Sewerage District of Buncombe County, the National Climatic Data Center, the North Carolina Center for Geographic Information and Analysis, Resource Data, Inc., and the USDA’s Forest Service’s Southern Research Station, as well as UNC Asheville and A-B Tech, will be on hand to highlight and discuss current GIS activities and initiatives.

GIS is a computer-based mapping tool that takes information from a database about a location, such as streets, buildings, water features, and terrain, and turns it into visual layers. The ability to see geographic and land use features on a map gives users a better understanding of a location, enabling planners, analysts, other decision makers and the general public to make informed decisions about their communities.

“GIS is a powerful tool for turning basic information into useful and meaningful products that can assist a variety of local, regional, and national decision makers and the general public,” said Greg Dobson, GIS research coordinator for RENCI at UNC Asheville and UNC Asheville’s National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center. “It gives us the ability to assess layers of information, all within a spatial context. This is certainly the focus of our research center. GIS Day is an excellent opportunity to share with the community the power of GIS and how it has impacted our local community.”

GIS is used throughout the world to solve problems related to the environment, health care, land use, business efficiency, education and public safety. The power supply directed to homes, the patrol cars and fire trucks that keep neighborhoods safe, and the delivery trucks on the roads all function more efficiently because of GIS. This technology can also help businesses place ATMs and restaurants at more convenient locations, allow people to pull maps off the Internet, and help farmers grow more crops with fewer chemicals.

For further information on GIS Day in Western North Carolina, please contact Greg Dobson, GIS research associate at UNC Asheville, at 828-251-6973 or gdobson@unca.edu, or Pete Kennedy, GIS instructor at A-B Tech, at 828-254-1921, ext. 289, or pkennedy@abtech.edu.

The UNC Asheville Community Engagement Site is located in Suite 116 of the Grove Arcade, on the O’Henry Avenue side of the building, at One Page Avenue, Asheville, North Carolina, 28801.

Media Contacts:
Merianne Epstein, UNC Asheville News Services, 828/251-6676;
Mona Cornwell, A-B Tech Director of Communications, 828/254-1921, ext. 117

CHARLOTTE, NC–Researchers at the Renaissance Computing Institute (RENCI) at UNC Charlotte will expand their study of development patterns in North Carolina to rapidly-growing counties in western North Carolina as well as the Triad and Research Triangle regions of the Piedmont.

The expansion of the urban growth study by RENCI at UNC Charlotte, the UNC Charlotte Urban Institute and the UNC Charlotte Center for Applied Geographic Information Science (CAGIS) is made possible by a grant from the Z. Smith Reynolds Foundation and by funding from the City of Asheville, the U.S. Forest Service and RENCI’s home office in Chapel Hill.

The original study, released in 2008, demonstrated rapid rates of urbanization, and resultant conversions of natural and rural lands, in the Charlotte region using satellite images.  That study found development in the Charlotte region had increased over 850 percent between 1976 and 2006 at a rate of 105 acres per day. The study also forecasted an additional 2.2 million acres to be developed by 2030, or 30 percent of the region’s landscape, with Mecklenburg County expected to convert all unprotected lands within 25 years. These findings resulted in a series of maps that can be viewed at the RENCI at UNC Charlotte website. Researchers at RENCI and UNC Charlotte’s Visualization Center are also developing the maps as interactive applications that can be manipulated with gestures on a touch-sensitive display.

“Since the 2008 study was released, policymakers throughout North Carolina have contacted us about expanding the urban growth model to cover the entire state,” noted Jeff Michael, director of RENCI at UNC Charlotte and the UNC Charlotte Urban Institute.  “We’re pleased that these funders, along with our research partners at RENCI at UNC Asheville, have given us this incredible opportunity to expand the project.”

Ross Meentemeyer, lead researcher for the UNC Charlotte team, added, “We are really excited about the ways in which this research can be used to understand how development impacts the state’s natural systems and its infrastructure, such as transportation and water.  Already, our researchers are looking more closely at the data covered in the original 2008 study and assessing such issues as the loss of forest cover and increasing per capita land consumption. We hope our findings will serve as a foundation for other research studies that will enhance our knowledge of growth’s impact on North Carolina.”

New study results will be available this fall with the release of data on four counties surrounding Asheville (Buncombe, Henderson, Madison and Transylvania) followed by a full report on land conversion rates in western North Carolina in the spring of 2010.  Reports on the Triad and Triangle areas will be available later in 2010.  Efforts are underway to secure funding to expand the analysis into eastern North Carolina.
The RENCI at UNC Charlotte engagement center is part of the statewide network of RENCI facilities that bring together researchers from the state’s academic institutions to address issues important to North Carolina and its economic competiveness. RENCI at UNC Charlotte involves faculty and staff from three UNC Charlotte research centers: the UNC Charlotte Urban Institute, the Center for Applied Geographic Information Science and the Charlotte Visualization Center. RENCI also operates facilities at UNC Asheville, East Carolina University, UNC Chapel Hill, Duke University and NC State University as well as its flagship site off campus in Chapel Hill.

For more information, see the RENCI at UNC Charlotte website or the main RENCI website.